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Chapter 12 Quiz - Time Series, Forecasting, and Index Numbers



1

The index number for the price of gasoline in 2002 was 142 and in 2003, it was 148.5, on a base year of 1994. What is the percent increase in price of gasoline from 2002 to 2003?
A)4.377%
B)4.577%
C)95.62%
D)6.5%
E)none of the above
2

A pattern of variation of a time series that repeats every year is called:
A)Cyclical
B)Seasonal
C)Trend
D)Secular
E)none of the above
3

Which of the following is not an example of seasonal variation?
A)sales of snow blowers
B)plant and flower sales
C)use of electricity
D)sales of suntan oil
E)annual earnings for a large corporation
4

Calculate a three-day moving average for the price of stock, for Tuesday through Thursday.

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A)53.50
B)54.10
C)90.17
D)54.00
E)none of the above
5

The data given below are quarterly sales for a large computer firm, in $100,000s.

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Compute the four-quarter moving average for the first four quarters and center it at the third quarter.

A)114.25
B)119.25
C)116.75
D)119.50
E)none of the above
6

The following are stock prices for a given group of stocks on the Dow Jones. Compute the forecast for day 3 using the exponential smoothing method, with w = .4.

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A)800
B)810
C)814
D)815
E)none of the above
7

The following are median sales prices of existing single family homes (in thousands of dollars):

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Using 2000 as the base year, what is the index of home prices in 2003?

A)118.9
B)111.6
C)104.48
D)100.00
E)none of the above
8

The following data is the weekly average exchange rate for the dollar against the German Mark.

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Compute the simple index number for week 6, using week 1 as the base week.

A)93.33
B)107.14
C)110
D)254.1
E)none of the above
9

The following is the quarterly payroll of a company (in thousands of dollars). Construct an exponential smoothing model, using w = .7, and predict the payroll for the next quarter.

95, 94, 92, 88, 83, 93

A)93
B)90
C)90.58
D)90.95
E)none of the above
10

The average credit bill of the customers of a particular organization have been as follows over the last few years:

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Estimate a linear trend line for this data. Use this trend line to predict credit balances of customers for the year 2004.

A)698.22
B)401.89
C)320.08
D)721.97
E)none of the above
11

The Consumer Price Index is an example of which type of index?
A)simple
B)composite
C)multiple
D)regression
E)none of the above
12

Demand for seats in a university is at its highest in the fall; demand also tends to grow and fall off in 25-year waves. In time-series forecasting, the former demand characteristic would be called __________ and the latter would be called __________.
A)Seasonality: cyclicality
B)Cyclicality; seasonality
C)Variability: randomality
D)Randomality; seasonality
E)Seasonality; variability





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