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Introduction, 66 Features Common to All Forecasts, 67 Elements of a Good Forecast, 67 Steps in the Forecasting Process, 68 Approaches to Forecasting, 68 Forecasts Based on Judgment and Opinion, 68 Executive Opinions, 69 Salesforce Opinions, 69 Consumer Surveys, 69 Other Approaches, 69 Forecasts Based on Time Series Data, 70 Naive Methods, 70 Techniques for Averaging, 72 Techniques for Trend, 76 Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing, 80 Techniques for Seasonality, 81 Techniques for Cycles, 85 Associative Forecasting Techniques, 85 Simple Linear Regression, 85 Comments on the Use of Linear Regression Analysis, 88 Curvilinear and Multiple Regression Analysis, 89 Accuracy and Control of Forecasts, 89 Newsclip: High Forecasts Can Be Bad News, 90 Summarizing Forecast Accuracy, 90 Controlling the Forecast, 91 Choosing a Forecasting Technique, 96 Using Forecast Information, 96 Computers in Forecasting, 97 Operations Strategy, 98 Reading: Gazing at the Crystal Ball, 98 Summary, 100 Key Terms, 102 Solved Problems, 102 Discussion and Review Questions, 108 Taking Stock, 109 Critical Thinking Exercise, 109 Problems, 109 Case: M&L Manufacturing, 118 Selected Bibliography and Further Reading, 118 |