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Multiple Choice and True/False Quiz
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1.
Which of the following time series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast a time series that exhibits a linear trend with no seasonal or cyclical patterns?
A)Dummy variable regression
B)Linear trend regression
C)Holt-Winter's double exponential smoothing
D)Multiplicative Winter's Method
E)A and D
2.
Which of the following is not a component of time series?
A)Trend
B)Seasonal
C)Cyclical
D)Irregular
E)Smoothing constant
3.
If the errors produced by a forecasting method for 3 observations are -1, -2 and -6, then what is the mean squared error (deviation)?
A)9
B)-9
C)3
D)13.67
4.
A restaurant has been experiencing higher sales during the weekends as compared to the weekdays. Daily restaurant sales patterns for this restaurant over a week are an example of the _______________ component of time series.
A)trend
B)seasonal
C)cyclical
D)irregular
5.
The ________________ component of a time series measures the fluctuations in a time series due to economic conditions of prosperity and recession with a duration of approximately 2 years or longer.
A)trend
B)seasonal
C)cyclical
D)irregular
6.
The ______________ component of a time series reflects the long-run decline or growth in a time series.
A)trend
B)seasonal
C)cyclical
D)irregular
7.
The _______________ component of a time series refers to the erratic time-series movements that follow no recognizable or regular pattern over a period of time.
A)trend
B)seasonal
C)cyclical
D)irregular
8.
A __________ is obtained by dividing the current value of a time series by the value of the time series in the base time period and by multiplying this ration by 100.
A)aggregate index
B)simple index
C)price index
D)quantity index.
9.
Which of the following time-series forecasting methods would not be used to forecast seasonal data?
A)Dummy variable regression
B)Simple exponential smoothing
C)Time-series decomposition
D)Census II method
10.
The smoothing constant is a number that determines how much weight is attached to each observation.
A)True
B)False
11.
Simple exponential smoothing is an appropriate method for prediction purposes when there is a significant trend present in a time series.
A)True
B)False
12.
The forecaster who uses MSD (mean squared deviations) to choose a forecasting method would prefer several smaller forecast errors to one large forecast error.
A)True
B)False
13.
When deseasonalizing a time series observation, the actual time series observation is divided by its seasonal factor.
A)True
B)False





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