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Multiple Choice Quiz
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1
It is necessary to monitor forecast errors to check for nonrandom patterns in forecast errors.
A)True
B)False
2
Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items.
A)True
B)False
3
Quantitative forecasting techniques are generally superior to qualitative forecasting techniques.
A)True
B)False
4
Due to randomness, forecasts cannot be expected to be completely accurate.
A)True
B)False
5
Error measures such as MAD and MSE should not be used with a naïve forecast.
A)True
B)False
6
It is reasonable to expect that about half of the errors of a good forecast will be positive, and half negative.
A)True
B)False
7
A tracking signal can be useful in detecting bias in forecast errors.
A)True
B)False
8
Forecast accuracy generally increases as the forecast horizon increases because shorter time horizons tend to be more influenced by random variations.
A)True
B)False
9
Naïve forecasts can be classified as subjective forecasts.
A)True
B)False
10
Forecasts based on consumer surveys are classified as quantitative because they use numerical data.
A)True
B)False
11
If the sum of forecast errors for a series of forecasts is zero, that implies excellent forecasting.
A)True
B)False
12
MAD is used in computing values of a tracking signal.
A)True
B)False
13
When sales in a particular time period are above average for the year, a seasonal relative that is less than 1.00 is used to bring that period's sales into line.
A)True
B)False
14
The SA method for computing seasonal relatives should not be used if seasonal variations are large relative the slope of the data.
A)True
B)False
15
Which exponential smoothing factor would produce the most smoothing?
A)1.0
B)0.3
C)0.1
D)0.0
16
Averaging techniques are useful for:
A)distinguishing between random and non-random variations
B)smoothing out fluctuations in time series
C)both (a) and (b)
D)providing technically accurate forecasts
E)all of the above
17
Which one of the following is a qualitative forecasting technique?
A)Associative
B)Naïve
C)Moving average
D)Exponential smoothing
E)Delphi
18
Which approach to forecasting uses a series of questionnaires?
A)Associative
B)Naïve
C)Moving average
D)Exponential smoothing
E)Delphi
19
Which term is most closely associated with simple exponential smoothing?
A)seasonal relative
B)moving average
C)trend
D)predictor variable
20
Which is not a typical approach for improving forecasts?
A)search for a better technique
B)shorten product development time
C)shorten lead times
D)build flexibility into the system
21
Which would not generally be considered as a feature common to all forecasts?
A)Assumption of a stable underlying causal system
B)Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values.
C)Historical data are available on which to base the forecast.
D)Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items.
E)Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.
22
If an analyst wants to make a moving average more responsive to change, the analyst should
A)increase the number of data points in the average
B)decrease the number of data points in the average
C)increase the value of the smoothing constant
D)decrease the value of the smoothing constant
E)None of these
23
Which phrase or term does not relate to the Delphi method of forecasting?
A)moving average
B)consensus
C)long range
D)questionnaire
24
What is the MAD for this set of data? –1 +3 0 –2 +3
A)1.0
B)1.8
C)2.5
D)3.0
E)9.0
25
What is the MSE for this set of data? –1 +3 0 –2 +3
A)1.8
B)3.0
C)9.0
D)23
E)None of these
26
Which term is most closely associated with a tracking signal?
A)MBA
B)MSE
C)MAD
D)MAPE
27
Which one would be considered a reason for using a salesforce composite forecast?
A)Sales people often communicate with each other.
B)They are not likely to be affected by recent events
C)They are very aware of the importance of forecast accuracy.
D)They are often aware of customers' future plans.
E)Better forecasts mean more money for them.





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