UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC OPINION IN THE CONTEXT OF AMERICAN POLITICS
American political culture reflects respect for the political values of liberty, individualism, equality of opportunity, and private property.
These values support a limited government role in meeting individual needs.
Early political leaders were suspicious of popular attitudes and passions, but were not indifferent to them.
- Before scientific polling, political leaders gauged popular support from newspaper reports and editorials.
- Informal straw polls sampling public opinion became popular at the turn of the twentieth century.
In 1936, George Gallup issued the first scientifically designed presidential election poll based on marketing research techniques.
Today, politicians use polling and survey research to gauge public opinion, shape policy, and manipulate political attitudes and behaviors.
HOW POLITICAL OPINIONS ARE FORMED
We form many of the attitudes, values, and beliefs that shape our opinions through a process called political socialization.
- Political values are formed early in life.
- Political outlook and behavior can change as we age.
- Some age differences in politics are the result of life-cycle effects - changes in our life circumstances.
- Other differences, known as generational effects, result from unique issues and events confronting each generation.
Agents of political socialization include the family, educational institutions, religious institutions, voluntary associations, and the media.
GROUP DIFFERENCES IN POLITICAL OPINIONS
Race, ethnicity, gender, and geographical location can all shape a person's political opinions.
A significant gender gap exists in both voting behavior and party preference.
- Women are more likely than men to support social programs, oppose policies involving force or aggression, and vote Democratic.
- These attitudes may stem from early differences in socialization.
Broad regional differences in political opinions exist in the United States.
- Southerners tend to be more conservative and more supportive of the military than those in the Northeast or on the West Coast.
- In recent years, southern states have become more conservative and Republican while northeastern states have become more liberal and Democratic.
MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION
Polls measure several dimensions of public opinion, including:
- Direction: an individual's preference with respect to a particular issue
- Salience: the importance attached to an issue or topic
- Intensity: the strength with which a particular preference is held
- Stability: the consistency with which a particular preference is maintained over time
- Informational support: the level of information an individual has regarding an issue
Polls take several popular forms.
- Benchmark surveys measure the public's knowledge and opinion of a candidate at a specific point in time.
- Trial heat surveys ask respondents which of two specific candidates they would vote for.
- Tracking polls supply current information by polling on a daily basis.
- In push polls, a campaign provides voters with negative information about its opponent, then asks them questions about that candidate.
POLLING TECHNIQUES
Scientific polls use the mathematical laws of probability to ensure accuracy.
- Polls survey a random sample of the population to approximate the views of the whole group.
- Simple random sampling gives everyone in a population an equal chance of being interviewed.
- Because the United States is so large, national pollsters use systematic sampling to obtain a more accurate sample.
Sampling error refers to a poll's degree of accuracy, expressed as a percentage.
Polls that survey fewer individuals have a higher sampling error.
Changing technology presents a challenge for modern pollsters.
- Inexpensive Internet polling can be done with Web access and simple software.
- Many people do not have land lines and do not list their cell phone numbers.
- Call screening technology allows individuals to avoid pollsters.
Polls should avoid asking leading questions, which are phrased to produce a predetermined response. Question order is also important.
THE CONTENT OF AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION
Education is the strongest single predictor of political knowledge.
Americans are better informed about institutions and processes of government than they are about people and players in the political arena.
Americans are generally poorly informed about global affairs.
Americans' trust and confidence in government has fallen sharply since the late 1960s.
Americans' belief in the effectiveness of political participation has also declined.
The dominant political ideologies in the United States are liberalism and conservatism.
- Liberalism supports a larger role for government in protecting and ensuring equal opportunity and civil liberties.
- Conservatism supports a limited role for government in the economy and faith in free market mechanisms.
Americans traditionally have been pragmatic people, more interested in solving problems than in ideology.
PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC POLICY
Government policies sometimes do not reflect public opinion.
- Voters often do not have clear preferences on some issues.
- Majority opinion may support policies detrimental to the rights of minorities.
Studies reveal a high degree of correspondence between public opinion and public policy.
Substantial changes in opinion are almost always followed by policy change in the same direction.
