Chapter Summary

Chapter 11: Probability

11.1 A strong argument is one having this feature: It is probable (but not necessary) that if its premises are true, then its conclusion is true. This section briefly discusses three theories of probability: the classical theory, the relative frequency theory, and the subjectivist theory.

11.2 Introduces the elementary rules of probability: restricted disjunction rule, the negation rule, the general disjunction rule, the conditional rule, the general conjunction rule, and the restricted conjunction rule.

11.3 Shows how Bayes' Theorem can be derived from the elementary rules of probability. Explains how Bayes' Theorem can be used to formulate certain types of problems, including philosophical ones, in a revealing way.