The issue: The population of a species increases when births outnumber deaths within the population. Throughout most of history, the human population has remained relatively stable because, although women may have had many children, most of them died. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR; the number of children a woman bears in her lifetime) has dropped in many countries, especially in developed countries. For example, in Europe, the TFR is about 1.5 children per woman, which is actually lower than the Replacement Level Fertility (RLF; the number of children needed to replace a woman and her mate). These numbers will ultimately result in a lower population size for Europe. Developing countries, too, have experienced decreased TFR; for example, Africa as a whole has seen the TFR drop from 6.5 (1975-1980) to 5.3 (1995-2000). Despite this good news, Africa’s population will continue to increase, because 5.3 children per woman is almost twice the RLF.

What does this mean to you? The good news is that total fertility rates, and therefore family sizes, are decreasing throughout the world. Unfortunately, however, this does not mean automatic population stabilization. Although each woman is having fewer babies, there are hundreds of millions of women having babies. There are also hundreds of millions of young people under the age of 15 who are soon going to have babies. Thus, people who claim that everything is under control merely report that the total fertility rate is declining; they neglect to report that women are having five or six (instead of eight or nine) babies, which is still way above replacement level fertility (which is about two). The end result is that billions more people will be added to the planet before humans achieve population stabilization; the question is merely how many more billions will be added.

Achieving sustainability: In order to stabilize the human population, the number of people born must equal the number of people who die. To achieve this, only two options are available: to increase the number of deaths (very undesirable) or decrease the number of births (very controversial). To decrease birth rates, developed countries can use technology (in the form of birth control methods), and an educated populace. Developing countries, however, have traditionally high fertility rates and thus high population growth rates. Religious, traditional, social, cultural, and economic factors play important roles in high growth rates. Women who are forced to be totally dependent on men and their children for security as they age will have lots of children to ensure security. It will be necessary to educate women, increase their role in society, provide access to birth control, and control disease to ensure survival of children before birth rates in developing countries will be lowered and populations stabilized.

Activity: Students will examine obituaries in newspapers to determine the size of American families and the trends in family size through time.

(1) Obtain a local newspaper, and a newspaper from a large city near you (if you live in a large city, get a paper from a small town) and locate the obituaries.

(2) From the local obituaries, determine the following:

the deceased’s age at death

sex of the deceased

cause of death

survivors (parents, children, grandchildren, aunts, uncles, etc.)

the deceased’s number of children, their ages, and gender

the educational level of the deceased (if not provided, may be inferred from his or her job)

(3) Repeat step 2 for the other newspaper’s obituaries.

(4) Construct a diagram that shows the deceased at the top, and the children and grandchildren (and great grandchildren, if necessary) to illustrate whether that family’s size has grown, decreased, or remained the same through time.

(5) If you have the time and the opportunity, locate the obituaries from a newspaper from a developing country, and repeat step 2.

(1) What was the average age of death from obituaries in your local paper? How does this compare with the average age of death for obituaries in the newspaper from the large city?

(2) Were there more men or women who died? Why might there be an unequal number of deaths between the sexes?

(3) What were some of the leading causes of death in each area? Why would the newspaper not print such information if it was provided?

(4) What was the average number of children the deceased person had? Does this number change when the age of the deceased is taken into account (e.g., did an older person have more children than a younger one)?

(5) How many grandchildren were mentioned? What were their ages? Were there more grandchildren than children?

(6) Looking at the diagram you drew, does this represent an increase in population (e.g., is the diagram pyramid-shaped) or a decrease in population (e.g., is the pyramid upside- down)? If you extrapolate this data to the general population, is the population increasing or decreasing?