Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2003, the world population stood at 6.3 billion people.
If the current growth rate of 1.3 percent per year persists, the population will double in 54 years. Most of that growth will occur in the less-developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life-support systems of the earth.
The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population.
The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved.
The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing countries have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high.
Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of a secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population. Others fear that excessive population growth and limited resources will catch many of the poorer countries in a demographic trap that could prevent them from ever achieving a stable population or a high standard of living.
While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social justice view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation.
We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available to our ancestors.
Sometimes successful family planning requires deep cultural changes such as improved social, educational, and economic status for women; higher values on individual children; accepting responsibility for our own lives; social security and political stability that give people the means and confidence to plan for the future; and knowledge, availability, and use of effective and acceptable means of birth control.
